MarketEdge AM Comments
Jan 19, 2024
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. March corn finished the overnight session up 2 ¾ cents, settling at 4.4675. March soybeans were up 10 ¾ cents, settling at 12.2425. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 200 points, trading at 103.340. February crude oil is off 19 cents, trading at $73.89 per barrel. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 212 points, trading at 37,871. Corn and soybean futures finally caught some bargain-buying overnight, stabilizing above recent lows. A break in the rally of the US Dollar Index and shipping concerns supported futures overnight. Traders are closely watching the situation in the Red Sea and the disruption it is causing to global shipping patterns. Recent attacks on shipping vessels by Yemeni Houthi rebels and retaliatory strikes from the US and UK have had a significant impact on commerce moving through the Red Sea and Suez Canal shipping route. Does this disruption directly impact the grain industry today? The answer is, minimally, however, this situation does not look to be short-lived and will likely alter long-term shipping patterns, having a significant global macroeconomic impact. The Export Sales Report released at 7:30am was also friendly to corn and soybean futures this morning. Weekly sales bookings for both commodities were impressive. Last week, 1,251,100MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is slightly above the highest trade estimate, is up noticeably from the previous week’s sales, and is 61% higher than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,000,400MT. This figure is 4% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 3% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Colombia, South Korea, and Honduras. Last week, 781,300MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade estimates, is up noticeably from the previous week’s sales, and is 6% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,670,700MT. This figure is 94% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 56% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Germany, Mexico, Spain, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds bought 1000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 2000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 252,210 contracts of corn, net short 42,280 contracts of soybeans, and net short 70,750 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at 4.43, the overnight low, followed by the new contract low charted yesterday, 4.3675. Initial resistance is at 4.4675, the overnight high, followed by 4.50, and then 4.60-4.6250, which includes the highs from every trading session last week. March soybeans find initial support at 12.1275, the overnight low, followed by the new seven-month low charted yesterday, 12.01. Initial resistance is at 12.2575, the overnight high, followed by 12.50, and then the 12.80 area. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were higher overnight. March corn finished the overnight session up 2 ¾ cents, settling at 4.4675. March soybeans were up 10 ¾ cents, settling at 12.2425. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 200 points, trading at 103.340. February crude oil is off 19 cents, trading at $73.89 per barrel. Precious metals are all higher. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 212 points, trading at 37,871. Corn and soybean futures finally caught some bargain-buying overnight, stabilizing above recent lows. A break in the rally of the US Dollar Index and shipping concerns supported futures overnight. Traders are closely watching the situation in the Red Sea and the disruption it is causing to global shipping patterns. Recent attacks on shipping vessels by Yemeni Houthi rebels and retaliatory strikes from the US and UK have had a significant impact on commerce moving through the Red Sea and Suez Canal shipping route. Does this disruption directly impact the grain industry today? The answer is, minimally, however, this situation does not look to be short-lived and will likely alter long-term shipping patterns, having a significant global macroeconomic impact. The Export Sales Report released at 7:30am was also friendly to corn and soybean futures this morning. Weekly sales bookings for both commodities were impressive. Last week, 1,251,100MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is slightly above the highest trade estimate, is up noticeably from the previous week’s sales, and is 61% higher than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,000,400MT. This figure is 4% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 3% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Colombia, South Korea, and Honduras. Last week, 781,300MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the upper end of the range of trade estimates, is up noticeably from the previous week’s sales, and is 6% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,670,700MT. This figure is 94% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 56% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Germany, Mexico, Spain, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds bought 1000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 2000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 252,210 contracts of corn, net short 42,280 contracts of soybeans, and net short 70,750 contracts of wheat. This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday. From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at 4.43, the overnight low, followed by the new contract low charted yesterday, 4.3675. Initial resistance is at 4.4675, the overnight high, followed by 4.50, and then 4.60-4.6250, which includes the highs from every trading session last week. March soybeans find initial support at 12.1275, the overnight low, followed by the new seven-month low charted yesterday, 12.01. Initial resistance is at 12.2575, the overnight high, followed by 12.50, and then the 12.80 area. Opening calls are higher.
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.