MarketEdge AM Comments

Good Morning.  Corn futures were slightly higher and soybean futures were lower overnight.  March corn finished the overnight session up a half of a penny, settling at 4.0650.  March soybeans were off 5 ½ cents, settling at 11.4225.  In the outside markets, as of 7:40am:  The US Dollar Index is off 120 points, trading at 103.842.  April crude oil is off $1.45, trading at $77.16 per barrel.  Precious metals are higher, except silver.  Industrial metals are all lower.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 41 points, trading at 39,164.  After working toward it all week long, March soybean futures managed to take out the contract low charted on May 31^st overnight.  There is seemingly no relief for soybean futures in the face of South American harvest pressure.  Corn futures can’t seem to catch much of a break either.  Again, fresh friendly fundamental news regarding grains and oilseeds is virtually non-existent this morning.  The funds continue to pile onto their already huge net short positions.  At some point, one would expect something to trigger a short-covering rally given how lopsided the funds are, however, unfortunately, today does not look to be the day.  This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report.  It did not do anything to help the current situation.  Weekly soybean sales bookings were atrocious and weekly corn sales bookings were just okay.  Last week, 820,400MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year.  This figure is on the lower end of the range of trade estimates, is 37% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 30% lower than the prior four-week average.  Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,024,500MT.  This figure is 13% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 16% higher than the prior four-week average.  Primary destinations were Mexico, Japan, Colombia, Saudi Arabia, and Honduras.  Last week, 55,900MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year.  This figure is a marketing-year low, is 84% lower than both the previous week’s sales and the prior four-week average, and is nearly 250,000MT lower than the lowest trade estimate.  Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,197,100MT.  This figure is 18% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 8% lower than the prior four-week average.  Primary destinations were China, Mexico, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea.  Yesterday, the funds sold 5000 contracts of corn, sold 6000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 1000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 321,000 contracts of corn, net short 142,370 contracts of soybeans, and net short 66,880 contracts of wheat.  This afternoon’s CFTC Commitment of Traders Report will show actual managed money positions as of Tuesday.  From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.05, followed immediately by the contract low charted yesterday, 4.0425, and then the psychological 4.00 mark.  Initial resistance is at 4.0925, the overnight high, followed by 4.2150, the double-high charted Tuesday and Friday.  March soybeans find initial support at the new contract low charted overnight, 11.4075, followed by the psychological 11.00 level.  Initial resistance is at 11.54, the overnight high, followed by 11.8850, this week’s high charted on Tuesday.  Opening calls are mixed.
 
Have a great Friday and an even better weekend.