MarketEdge AM Comments
Oct 03, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. December corn finished the overnight session off a penny and a quarter, settling at 4.8750. November soybeans were off 9 ½ cents, settling at 12.6750. In the outside markets, as of 7:30am: The US Dollar Index is up 240 points, trading at 107.147. November crude oil is off 45 cents, trading at $88.37 per barrel. Precious metals are lower, except platinum. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 158 points, trading at 33,480. Corn futures were under pressure overnight after failing to push through key chart resistance yesterday. Both corn and soybean futures are struggling under the weight of harvest progress. We are now entering the gut slot of harvest and yield reports, so far, have been mostly “as expected” or “better than expected” across the Corn Belt. It is awful hard for futures to stage any kind of meaningful rally when faced with rapid harvest progress and no reports of widespread production problems. A strong US Dollar is also acting as a noose around the neck of grain and oilseed futures. The US is already grappling with a slow/mediocre export program and a strong dollar certainly doesn’t do anything to help the export effort. On yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report, the national corn harvest was reported to be 23% complete and the national soybean harvest was also reported to be 23% complete. Both of these figures are well ahead of five-year averages. Yesterday, the funds bought 10,000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 8000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 159,670 contracts of corn, net long 19,330 contracts of soybeans, and net short 110,420 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn faces initial resistance at the one-month high charted on September 6th, 4.9025, followed by 4.9950, the August 29th high, and the psychological 5.00 mark. Initial support lies at 4.85, the overnight low, followed by 4.80, and then Friday’s low, 4.7550. November soybeans face initial resistance at 12.80, followed by the psychological 13.00 level, and then 13.17, last week’s high charted on Wednesday. Initial support lies at the new three-month low charted overnight, 12.6325, followed by 12.5675, the low charted on June 28th, and then 12.50. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Tuesday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. December corn finished the overnight session off a penny and a quarter, settling at 4.8750. November soybeans were off 9 ½ cents, settling at 12.6750. In the outside markets, as of 7:30am: The US Dollar Index is up 240 points, trading at 107.147. November crude oil is off 45 cents, trading at $88.37 per barrel. Precious metals are lower, except platinum. Industrial metals are all lower. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 158 points, trading at 33,480. Corn futures were under pressure overnight after failing to push through key chart resistance yesterday. Both corn and soybean futures are struggling under the weight of harvest progress. We are now entering the gut slot of harvest and yield reports, so far, have been mostly “as expected” or “better than expected” across the Corn Belt. It is awful hard for futures to stage any kind of meaningful rally when faced with rapid harvest progress and no reports of widespread production problems. A strong US Dollar is also acting as a noose around the neck of grain and oilseed futures. The US is already grappling with a slow/mediocre export program and a strong dollar certainly doesn’t do anything to help the export effort. On yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress and Conditions Report, the national corn harvest was reported to be 23% complete and the national soybean harvest was also reported to be 23% complete. Both of these figures are well ahead of five-year averages. Yesterday, the funds bought 10,000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 8000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 159,670 contracts of corn, net long 19,330 contracts of soybeans, and net short 110,420 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn faces initial resistance at the one-month high charted on September 6th, 4.9025, followed by 4.9950, the August 29th high, and the psychological 5.00 mark. Initial support lies at 4.85, the overnight low, followed by 4.80, and then Friday’s low, 4.7550. November soybeans face initial resistance at 12.80, followed by the psychological 13.00 level, and then 13.17, last week’s high charted on Wednesday. Initial support lies at the new three-month low charted overnight, 12.6325, followed by 12.5675, the low charted on June 28th, and then 12.50. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Tuesday.