MarketEdge AM Comments
Nov 30, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. It is First Notice Day for December corn futures. If you have any basis contracts of hedge-to-arrive contracts versus December futures, they need to either be priced or rolled before the Chicago Board of Trade closes today. Corn futures finished the overnight session higher while soybean futures were lower. March corn was up 2 cents, settling at 4.7775. January soybeans were off a penny and a half, settling at 13.4550. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 340 points, trading at 103.104. January crude oil is up $1.14, trading at $79.00 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 217 points, trading at 35,705. Fresh news regarding grains and oilseeds is limited this morning. Traders continue to monitor South American weather and demand stories but remain mostly focused on December futures coming to delivery today. The December to March corn spread has done some crazy stuff in the last few days, stretching out to the widest in history, currently sitting at 25 cents. This has occurred because of a few factors, namely: A large, long, drawn-out harvest in the Eastern Corn Belt, high interest rates, and generally high prices that have increased the cost of carry. At 7:30am this morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Weekly corn and soybean sales bookings were impressive and exceeded traders’ expectations. Last week, 1,927,800MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is a marketing-year high, is over 700,000MT higher than the highest trade guess, is 35% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 54% higher than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 499,900MT. This figure is 20% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 24% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Colombia, Panama, Taiwan, and Jamaica. Last week, 1,895,300MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is nearly 400,000MT higher than the highest trade guess, is 97% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 10% higher than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,447,700MT. This figure is 11% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 24% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Mexico, Vietnam, the Netherlands, and South Korea. Yesterday, the funds bought 1000 contracts of corn, bought 1000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 4000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 209,790 contracts of corn, net long 76,820 contracts of soybeans, and net short 115,420 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.75, followed by the new contract low charted yesterday, 4.7050. Initial resistance is at 4.78, the overnight high, followed by 4.9325, the double-high charted last Tuesday and Wednesday. January soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.4050, followed by the one-month low charted on Monday, 13.2350. Initial resistance is at 13.52, yesterday’s high, followed by last week’s high charted on Tuesday, 13.8925. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. It is First Notice Day for December corn futures. If you have any basis contracts of hedge-to-arrive contracts versus December futures, they need to either be priced or rolled before the Chicago Board of Trade closes today. Corn futures finished the overnight session higher while soybean futures were lower. March corn was up 2 cents, settling at 4.7775. January soybeans were off a penny and a half, settling at 13.4550. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is up 340 points, trading at 103.104. January crude oil is up $1.14, trading at $79.00 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 217 points, trading at 35,705. Fresh news regarding grains and oilseeds is limited this morning. Traders continue to monitor South American weather and demand stories but remain mostly focused on December futures coming to delivery today. The December to March corn spread has done some crazy stuff in the last few days, stretching out to the widest in history, currently sitting at 25 cents. This has occurred because of a few factors, namely: A large, long, drawn-out harvest in the Eastern Corn Belt, high interest rates, and generally high prices that have increased the cost of carry. At 7:30am this morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Weekly corn and soybean sales bookings were impressive and exceeded traders’ expectations. Last week, 1,927,800MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is a marketing-year high, is over 700,000MT higher than the highest trade guess, is 35% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 54% higher than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 499,900MT. This figure is 20% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 24% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Colombia, Panama, Taiwan, and Jamaica. Last week, 1,895,300MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is nearly 400,000MT higher than the highest trade guess, is 97% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 10% higher than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,447,700MT. This figure is 11% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 24% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Mexico, Vietnam, the Netherlands, and South Korea. Yesterday, the funds bought 1000 contracts of corn, bought 1000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 4000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 209,790 contracts of corn, net long 76,820 contracts of soybeans, and net short 115,420 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, March corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 4.75, followed by the new contract low charted yesterday, 4.7050. Initial resistance is at 4.78, the overnight high, followed by 4.9325, the double-high charted last Tuesday and Wednesday. January soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.4050, followed by the one-month low charted on Monday, 13.2350. Initial resistance is at 13.52, yesterday’s high, followed by last week’s high charted on Tuesday, 13.8925. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Thursday.