MarketEdge AM Comments
Nov 02, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn futures finished the overnight session mixed with nearby contracts slightly lower and soybean futures were higher overnight. December corn finished the overnight session off a penny and a quarter, settling at 4.7375. January soybeans were up 8 ¼ cents, settling at 13.2325. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 930 points, trading at 105.950. December crude oil is up 64 cents, trading at $81.08 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except platinum. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 191 points, trading at 33,542. Although grain and oilseed futures have been mostly ignoring the outside markets, particularly the US Dollar Index, of late, the nearly 1000-point nosedive in the dollar overnight could not be ignored and is supportive to futures. The US Dollar Index is reacting this morning to the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates alone yesterday. This was the second consecutive meeting in which the Fed decided to leave rates unchanged. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Weekly corn and soybean sales bookings fell within the ranges of trade expectations but were not overly impressive. Last week, 748,100MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the lower end of the range of trade estimates, is 45% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 40% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 505,900MT. This figure is up 5% from the previous week’s shipments and is 17% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Canada, Japan, Honduras, and Guatemala. Last week, 1,010,000MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the lower end of the range of trade estimates, is 27% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 13% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,991,400MT. This figure is 17% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 23% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds sold 2000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 3000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 106,520 contracts of corn, net long 5820 contracts of soybeans, and net short 106,710 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at the seven-week low charted yesterday, 4.7250, followed by the two-year-plus contract low charted on September 19th, 4.6775. Initial resistance is at 4.80, yesterday’s high, followed by 4.8425, the double-high charted on Monday and last Thursday, and then the psychological 5.00 level. January soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.15, followed by a cluster of support from 12.9750 to 13.00, which includes the lows from Tuesday and every day last week aside from Monday, and then 12.7025, the double-low charted on October 11th and 12th that is also a four-month contract low. Initial resistance is at 13.27, the overnight high, followed by 13.3125, Monday’s high, and then 13.34, the one-month high charted on October 20th. Opening calls are steady/higher.
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. Corn futures finished the overnight session mixed with nearby contracts slightly lower and soybean futures were higher overnight. December corn finished the overnight session off a penny and a quarter, settling at 4.7375. January soybeans were up 8 ¼ cents, settling at 13.2325. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 930 points, trading at 105.950. December crude oil is up 64 cents, trading at $81.08 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except platinum. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 191 points, trading at 33,542. Although grain and oilseed futures have been mostly ignoring the outside markets, particularly the US Dollar Index, of late, the nearly 1000-point nosedive in the dollar overnight could not be ignored and is supportive to futures. The US Dollar Index is reacting this morning to the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates alone yesterday. This was the second consecutive meeting in which the Fed decided to leave rates unchanged. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Weekly corn and soybean sales bookings fell within the ranges of trade expectations but were not overly impressive. Last week, 748,100MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the lower end of the range of trade estimates, is 45% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 40% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 505,900MT. This figure is up 5% from the previous week’s shipments and is 17% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, Canada, Japan, Honduras, and Guatemala. Last week, 1,010,000MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the lower end of the range of trade estimates, is 27% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 13% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,991,400MT. This figure is 17% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 23% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds sold 2000 contracts of corn, bought 2000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 3000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 106,520 contracts of corn, net long 5820 contracts of soybeans, and net short 106,710 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, December corn finds initial support at the seven-week low charted yesterday, 4.7250, followed by the two-year-plus contract low charted on September 19th, 4.6775. Initial resistance is at 4.80, yesterday’s high, followed by 4.8425, the double-high charted on Monday and last Thursday, and then the psychological 5.00 level. January soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.15, followed by a cluster of support from 12.9750 to 13.00, which includes the lows from Tuesday and every day last week aside from Monday, and then 12.7025, the double-low charted on October 11th and 12th that is also a four-month contract low. Initial resistance is at 13.27, the overnight high, followed by 13.3125, Monday’s high, and then 13.34, the one-month high charted on October 20th. Opening calls are steady/higher.
Have a great Thursday.