MarketEdge AM Comments
May 15, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures finished the overnight session higher. July corn was up 5 ¾ cents, settling at 5.92. July soybeans were up 14 ½ cents, settling at 14.0450. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 243 points, trading at 102.438. June crude oil is up 55 cents, trading at $70.59 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except gold. Industrial metals are higher, except tin. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 90 points, trading at 33,445. A sharply lower US Dollar, weekend rainfall across the Plains and the Midwest, and a rally in wheat futures supported grains and oilseeds overnight. Although corn and soybean planting is nearing completion in the heart of the Corn Belt, traders continue to keep a close eye on the Dakotas and Northern Minnesota. In the Northwestern Corn Belt, too much precipitation has caused a delay in corn, soybean, and spring wheat planting. The forecast for the rest of the month of May should allow farmers in the Northwestern Belt to catch up on planting progress, however, as it stands today, that is the key region of concern for traders in Chicago. At 11am, the National Oilseed Processors’ Association will release April crush figures. April crush is expected to be reported at 174.2 million bushels. This figure, if realized, would be a record for the month of April. Friday’s report was a tad more bearish than what had been expected. After its release, there was a moment of “sell the rumor, buy the fact” behavior on the board as futures rallied. As the session wore on, though, that brief glimmer of optimism faded away and corn futures ended the day mixed while soybean futures were sharply lower. On Friday, the funds were net even on corn, sold 10,000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 112,505 contracts of corn, net long 37,760 contracts of soybeans, and net short 119,650 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, July corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 5.8150, followed by Friday’s low, 5.7275, and then the 16-month low charted on May 3rd, 5.6925. Initial resistance is at 5.93 and 5.9375, the highs from overnight and Friday, respectively, followed by the psychological 6.00 mark, which was also last Monday’s high. July soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.8625, followed closely by the 1 ½ month low charted on Thursday, 13.8525. Initial resistance is at the psychological 14.00 level, followed by 14.1675, Friday’s high, and then last week’s high charted on Monday, 14.4675. Opening calls are mixed/higher. Following are weekend rainfall totals reported by River Valley Coop employees for their respective Coop locations and/or homes:
Have a great Monday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures finished the overnight session higher. July corn was up 5 ¾ cents, settling at 5.92. July soybeans were up 14 ½ cents, settling at 14.0450. In the outside markets, as of 7:40am: The US Dollar Index is off 243 points, trading at 102.438. June crude oil is up 55 cents, trading at $70.59 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except gold. Industrial metals are higher, except tin. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 90 points, trading at 33,445. A sharply lower US Dollar, weekend rainfall across the Plains and the Midwest, and a rally in wheat futures supported grains and oilseeds overnight. Although corn and soybean planting is nearing completion in the heart of the Corn Belt, traders continue to keep a close eye on the Dakotas and Northern Minnesota. In the Northwestern Corn Belt, too much precipitation has caused a delay in corn, soybean, and spring wheat planting. The forecast for the rest of the month of May should allow farmers in the Northwestern Belt to catch up on planting progress, however, as it stands today, that is the key region of concern for traders in Chicago. At 11am, the National Oilseed Processors’ Association will release April crush figures. April crush is expected to be reported at 174.2 million bushels. This figure, if realized, would be a record for the month of April. Friday’s report was a tad more bearish than what had been expected. After its release, there was a moment of “sell the rumor, buy the fact” behavior on the board as futures rallied. As the session wore on, though, that brief glimmer of optimism faded away and corn futures ended the day mixed while soybean futures were sharply lower. On Friday, the funds were net even on corn, sold 10,000 contracts of soybeans, and bought 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 112,505 contracts of corn, net long 37,760 contracts of soybeans, and net short 119,650 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, July corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 5.8150, followed by Friday’s low, 5.7275, and then the 16-month low charted on May 3rd, 5.6925. Initial resistance is at 5.93 and 5.9375, the highs from overnight and Friday, respectively, followed by the psychological 6.00 mark, which was also last Monday’s high. July soybeans find initial support at the overnight low, 13.8625, followed closely by the 1 ½ month low charted on Thursday, 13.8525. Initial resistance is at the psychological 14.00 level, followed by 14.1675, Friday’s high, and then last week’s high charted on Monday, 14.4675. Opening calls are mixed/higher. Following are weekend rainfall totals reported by River Valley Coop employees for their respective Coop locations and/or homes:
| CITY | COUNTY | STATE | RAIN TOTAL |
| MARTELLE | JONES | IA | 0.10 |
| LOWDEN | CEDAR | IA | 0.30 |
| DEWITT | CLINTON | IA | 0.20 |
| DEER GROVE | WHITESIDE | IL | 1.60 |
| WALNUT | BUREAU | IL | 0.90 |
| THOMAS | BUREAU | IL | 1.40 |
| TISKILWA | BUREAU | IL | 0.20 |
| MANLIUS | BUREAU | IL | 2.40 |
| WYANET | BUREAU | IL | 0.83 |
| SHEFFIELD | BUREAU | IL | 1.00 |
| NEPONSET | BUREAU | IL | TRACE |
| OSCEOLA | STARK | IL | 0.30 |
| BRADFORD | STARK | IL | 0.10 |
| GENESEO | HENRY | IL | 0.30 |
| CAMP GROVE | MARSHALL | IL | 0.25 |
| CAMBRIDGE | HENRY | IL | 0.00 |
| PRINCETON | HENRY | IL | 1.20 |
| GALVA | HENRY | IL | 0.05 |
| EDELSTEIN | PEORIA | IL | 0.15 |
| KASBEER | BUREAU | IL | 1.75 |
| BISHOP HILL | HENRY | IL | 0.25 |
| OSCO | HENRY | IL | TRACE |
Have a great Monday.