MarketEdge AM Comments

(Phil Knuth)

Good Morning.  Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight.  July corn finished the overnight session off 8 cents, settling at 5.8850.  July soybeans were off 11 ¼ cents, settling at 14.2250.  In the outside markets, as of 7:45am:  The US Dollar Index is up 310 points, trading at 101.687.  June crude oil is off 77 cents, trading at $72.39 per barrel.  Precious metals are higher, except silver.  Industrial metals are higher, except copper.  The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 72 points, trading at 33,613.  A sharply higher US Dollar Index, weaker crude oil futures, and planting progress figures reported yesterday that exceeded average trade estimates and five-year averages weighed on corn and soybean futures overnight.  The US corn crop was reported to be 49% planted as of Sunday night.  This figure is a 23-point advancement from last week, is 28 points ahead of last year at this time, is seven points ahead of the five-year average, and is one point ahead of the average trade estimate.  Iowa’s corn crop was reported to be 70% planted.  This figure is a whopping 41-point advancement week-over-week.  The Illinois corn crop was reported to be 73% planted.  This figure is a 33-point advancement week-over-week.  The US soybean crop was reported to be 35% planted as of Sunday night.  This figure is 16-point advancement from last week, is 24-points ahead of last year at this time, is 14-points ahead of the five-year average, and is one point ahead of the average trade estimate.  The national planting pace for soybeans reported yesterday was the second-fastest pace reported in recorded history for this week of the year.  The record was set in 2021 and records date back to 1982.  Additional planting progress this week is likely to be slow due to wet weather, however, the trade does not appear to be concerned at all that weather will put a hiccup in planting progress this week after such a tremendous start to the planting campaign.  There is still plenty of time to get the crop planted in a timely fashion as it is only May 9^th.  Yesterday, the funds sold 1000 contracts of corn, sold 1000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 2000 contracts of wheat.  They are now estimated to be net short 102,785 contracts of corn, net long 59,990 contracts of soybeans, and net short 116,855 contracts of wheat.  From a chart perspective, July corn finds initial support at the overnight low, 5.8775, followed by the 15-month low charted on Wednesday, 5.6925.  Initial resistance is at the psychological 6.00 mark, which was also yesterday’s high, followed by 6.12, the high charted on April 26^th.  July soybeans find initial support at 14.2150, the overnight low, followed by the psychological 14.00 level, and then the one-month low charted on Wednesday, 13.9225.  Initial resistance is at 14.4675, yesterday’s high, followed by 14.50.  Opening calls are lower.
 
Have a great Tuesday.