MarketEdge PM Comments

(Allison Ryan)

Grains were stronger on the overnights, but faded throughout daytime trade. September corn closed down a penny, while new crop was even. August beans were up ¾ c, and November was up ½ c.
 

• The market is getting pulled in two different directions- the weather continues to be the big question mark, and whether the forecasted rain will come to fruition, compared to our lack of demand
• As far as demand goes- we are out of the market globally; FOB values compared to South America have the US priced out through December on corn
• The western corn belt received a more widespread rain over the weekend, whereas the eastern corn belt continues to be very dry
• The short term forecast looks promising for the western corn belt; the long term forecast has potential for quite a bit of rain in the eastern corn belt- again, will it come to fruition?
• In comparison to ’88, the market rallied based off of a hot and dry summer and peaked the 4^th of July weekend; by the time fall arrived, 75% of the rally was given back
• The market expected a drop in ratings this week- 3 points in corn and 2 on beans; we dropped 6 points on corn and 5 on beans as of 3 PM Tuesday
• December corn hit a new high of 6.09 and November new high of 13.6475 on the overnights, but pushed back down pretty quickly after the open
• June 30 is our next big report, including the quarterly grain stocks and acreage numbers- typically a volatile report
• Ultimately, yield dictates all, and with the current demand, a decrease in yield for the ’23 crop doesn’t adjust our carryout all that much
• Funds are projected to be roughly 100-150k contracts long, compared to short just a few short weeks ago
• Crude and the Dow are down, while the Dollar is firmer
• Visit with your originator about capitalizing on this weather rally, especially with lack of demand globally; we’re in much more profitable territory than we were a week and a half ago

Have a great evening.