MarketEdge AM Comments
Dec 21, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were mixed overnight. March corn finished the overnight session up ¾ of a penny, settling at 4.7050. January soybeans were off 3 cents, settling at 13.0525. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 470 points, trading at 101.940. February crude oil is off $1.44, trading at $72.78 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are lower, except tin. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 192 points, trading at 37,637. Corn and soybean futures chopped around overnight with no clear direction. The outside markets did little to help. With both the US Dollar and crude oil trading sharply lower, it is difficult for traders to rely on the outside markets for a clear market direction. Soybean futures are caught between a rock and a hard place, acknowledging shrinking South American soybean production estimates while at the same time being cognizant of improving South American weather. At 7:30am, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Weekly sales bookings for both corn and soybeans were within the ranges of trade expectations and weekly soybean sales bookings were much improved from the previous week. Last week, 1,013,100MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the lower end of the range of trade estimates, is 29% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 33% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 870,900MT. This figure is 2% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 14% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, China, Japan, Colombia, and El Salvador. Last week, 1,989,400MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is in the middle of the range of trade estimates, is 84% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 51% higher than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,329,100MT. This figure is 15% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 3% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Spain, Japan, Mexico, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds sold 2000 contracts of corn, sold 5000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 164,655 contracts of corn, net long 22,750 contracts of soybeans, and net short 77,110 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, March corn charted a new contract low yesterday, at 4.6825. That level now stands as initial support and additional support below it is very thin. Initial resistance is at 4.71, the overnight high, followed by the 4.75-4.85 area. January soybeans find initial support at the one-week low charted overnight, 13.0325, followed by 13.0250, the nearly two-week low charted last Wednesday, the psychological 13.00 mark, and then 12.92, the two-month low charted on December 7th. Initial resistance is at 13.10, the overnight high, followed by 13.2875, the one-week high charted on Tuesday, and then 13.44, the three-week high charted last Tuesday. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were mixed overnight. March corn finished the overnight session up ¾ of a penny, settling at 4.7050. January soybeans were off 3 cents, settling at 13.0525. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is off 470 points, trading at 101.940. February crude oil is off $1.44, trading at $72.78 per barrel. Precious metals are mixed. Industrial metals are lower, except tin. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 192 points, trading at 37,637. Corn and soybean futures chopped around overnight with no clear direction. The outside markets did little to help. With both the US Dollar and crude oil trading sharply lower, it is difficult for traders to rely on the outside markets for a clear market direction. Soybean futures are caught between a rock and a hard place, acknowledging shrinking South American soybean production estimates while at the same time being cognizant of improving South American weather. At 7:30am, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Weekly sales bookings for both corn and soybeans were within the ranges of trade expectations and weekly soybean sales bookings were much improved from the previous week. Last week, 1,013,100MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is on the lower end of the range of trade estimates, is 29% lower than the previous week’s sales, and is 33% lower than the prior four-week average. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 870,900MT. This figure is 2% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 14% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Mexico, China, Japan, Colombia, and El Salvador. Last week, 1,989,400MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is in the middle of the range of trade estimates, is 84% higher than the previous week’s sales, and is 51% higher than the prior four-week average. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 1,329,100MT. This figure is 15% higher than the previous week’s shipments and is 3% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Spain, Japan, Mexico, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds sold 2000 contracts of corn, sold 5000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 164,655 contracts of corn, net long 22,750 contracts of soybeans, and net short 77,110 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, March corn charted a new contract low yesterday, at 4.6825. That level now stands as initial support and additional support below it is very thin. Initial resistance is at 4.71, the overnight high, followed by the 4.75-4.85 area. January soybeans find initial support at the one-week low charted overnight, 13.0325, followed by 13.0250, the nearly two-week low charted last Wednesday, the psychological 13.00 mark, and then 12.92, the two-month low charted on December 7th. Initial resistance is at 13.10, the overnight high, followed by 13.2875, the one-week high charted on Tuesday, and then 13.44, the three-week high charted last Tuesday. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Thursday.