MarketEdge AM Comments
Aug 02, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn futures were higher and soybean futures were lower overnight. September corn finished the overnight session up 3 ¼ cents, settling at 5.0025. November soybeans were off 13 cents, settling at 13.2825. In the outside markets, as of 7:50am: The US Dollar Index is up 143 points, trading at 102.446. September crude oil is up 56 cents, trading at $81.93. Precious metals are higher, except platinum. Industrial metals are lower, except zinc. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 160 points, trading at 35,597. Recent developments in the Russia/Ukraine conflict supported feedgrains overnight. Corn and wheat futures initially rallied sharply overnight in reaction to a Russian strike on a key Ukrainian export facility on the Danube River. After it was reported that damage was confined to one grain silo and the entire facility was not destroyed, futures backed off a bit and finished the overnight session only slightly higher. That is not to say that the attack was not a big deal. On the contrary, the Danube River not only serves as an important export route to the Black Sea, it also forms the border with Romania, a NATO member. Russia bombing this close to a NATO ally is certainly worth raising eyebrows over. Corn and soybean futures continue to be pressured by the extended weather forecast for the Corn Belt calling for moderate temperatures and widespread precipitation. In the last 24-hours, Central Nebraska, Southern Iowa, and most of Missouri received a nice shot of rain. Again, it is a tale of the “haves and have nots,” however, in Chicago the “rain makes grain” mantra is paramount. This afternoon, StoneX will release their crop survey results, kicking off the season of private yield estimates. Several more private analyst estimates will follow in the weeks ahead, including the ProFarmer Tour. USDA will update their balance sheets next Friday. Yesterday, the funds sold 3000 contracts of corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 18,945 contracts of corn, net long 81,785 contracts of soybeans, and net short 83,110 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn closed below the psychological 5.00 mark for the first time in two weeks yesterday. This level now stands as initial resistance, followed by the overnight high, 5.1225, and then the chart gap from Sunday night, 5.1625-5.1675. Initial support lies at 4.9650, yesterday’s low, followed by the double-low from July 12th and 13th that is also a two-year contract low, 4.74. November soybeans face initial resistance at the overnight high, 13.54, followed by the chart gap from Sunday night, 13.7550-13.79, and then the psychological 14.00 level. Initial support lies at the three-week low charted Monday, 13.2275, followed by the low for the month of July charted on the 7th, 13.1550, and then 13.00. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Wednesday.
Good Morning. Corn futures were higher and soybean futures were lower overnight. September corn finished the overnight session up 3 ¼ cents, settling at 5.0025. November soybeans were off 13 cents, settling at 13.2825. In the outside markets, as of 7:50am: The US Dollar Index is up 143 points, trading at 102.446. September crude oil is up 56 cents, trading at $81.93. Precious metals are higher, except platinum. Industrial metals are lower, except zinc. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is off 160 points, trading at 35,597. Recent developments in the Russia/Ukraine conflict supported feedgrains overnight. Corn and wheat futures initially rallied sharply overnight in reaction to a Russian strike on a key Ukrainian export facility on the Danube River. After it was reported that damage was confined to one grain silo and the entire facility was not destroyed, futures backed off a bit and finished the overnight session only slightly higher. That is not to say that the attack was not a big deal. On the contrary, the Danube River not only serves as an important export route to the Black Sea, it also forms the border with Romania, a NATO member. Russia bombing this close to a NATO ally is certainly worth raising eyebrows over. Corn and soybean futures continue to be pressured by the extended weather forecast for the Corn Belt calling for moderate temperatures and widespread precipitation. In the last 24-hours, Central Nebraska, Southern Iowa, and most of Missouri received a nice shot of rain. Again, it is a tale of the “haves and have nots,” however, in Chicago the “rain makes grain” mantra is paramount. This afternoon, StoneX will release their crop survey results, kicking off the season of private yield estimates. Several more private analyst estimates will follow in the weeks ahead, including the ProFarmer Tour. USDA will update their balance sheets next Friday. Yesterday, the funds sold 3000 contracts of corn, bought 5000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 6000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net short 18,945 contracts of corn, net long 81,785 contracts of soybeans, and net short 83,110 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, September corn closed below the psychological 5.00 mark for the first time in two weeks yesterday. This level now stands as initial resistance, followed by the overnight high, 5.1225, and then the chart gap from Sunday night, 5.1625-5.1675. Initial support lies at 4.9650, yesterday’s low, followed by the double-low from July 12th and 13th that is also a two-year contract low, 4.74. November soybeans face initial resistance at the overnight high, 13.54, followed by the chart gap from Sunday night, 13.7550-13.79, and then the psychological 14.00 level. Initial support lies at the three-week low charted Monday, 13.2275, followed by the low for the month of July charted on the 7th, 13.1550, and then 13.00. Opening calls are mixed.
Have a great Wednesday.