MarketEdge AM Comments
Apr 27, 2023
(Phil Knuth)
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. July corn finished the overnight session off 7 cents, settling at 5.94. July soybeans were off 6 cents, settling at 14.0875. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is up 165 points, trading at 101.632. June crude oil is up 34 cents, trading at $74.64 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except platinum. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 122 points, trading at 33,546. Cue the broken record! The current forecast for the US Midwest that should offer plenty of opportunity for farmers to make significant strides in planting progress, a struggling US export program, and technical liquidation pressured corn and soybean futures overnight. The nearby July corn contract charted a new nine-month low and the December corn contract took out key support that had held for over a year overnight. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Although weekly sales bookings for both corn and soybeans were within the ranges of trade expectations, they were not impressive by any means. Last week, 400,000MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is 28% higher than the previous week’s sales, is 49% lower than the prior four-week average, and is in the middle of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,076,300MT. This figure is 17% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 7% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Japan, Mexico, China, Colombia, and Peru. Last week, 311,300MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is up noticeably from the previous week’s sales, is 38% higher than the prior four-week average, and is in the middle of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 453,700MT. This figure is 22% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 35% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Germany, Japan, Mexico, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds sold 6000 contracts of corn, sold 1000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 3000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 33,700 contracts of corn, net long 112,630 contracts of soybeans, and net short 130,290 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, July corn charted a nine-month low and finished filling in the chart gap from July 26th overnight. The overnight low, 5.9350, stands as initial support, followed by the July 22nd low, 5.7425. Initial resistance is at the psychological 6.00 level, followed closely by the overnight high, 6.0250, and then 6.12, yesterday’s high. July soybeans find initial support at the one-month low charted overnight, 14.0525, followed by the psychological 14.00 mark, and then 13.8375, the double-low from September 8th and March 24th and the nearly eight-month low for the contract. Initial resistance is at 14.1725, the overnight high, followed by 14.50, and then the high for the week charted on Monday, 14.6225. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Thursday.
Good Morning. Corn and soybean futures were lower overnight. July corn finished the overnight session off 7 cents, settling at 5.94. July soybeans were off 6 cents, settling at 14.0875. In the outside markets, as of 7:45am: The US Dollar Index is up 165 points, trading at 101.632. June crude oil is up 34 cents, trading at $74.64 per barrel. Precious metals are higher, except platinum. Industrial metals are mixed. The Electronic Mini-DJIA is up 122 points, trading at 33,546. Cue the broken record! The current forecast for the US Midwest that should offer plenty of opportunity for farmers to make significant strides in planting progress, a struggling US export program, and technical liquidation pressured corn and soybean futures overnight. The nearby July corn contract charted a new nine-month low and the December corn contract took out key support that had held for over a year overnight. This morning, USDA released the weekly Export Sales Report. Although weekly sales bookings for both corn and soybeans were within the ranges of trade expectations, they were not impressive by any means. Last week, 400,000MT of corn was booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is 28% higher than the previous week’s sales, is 49% lower than the prior four-week average, and is in the middle of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s corn export shipments totaled 1,076,300MT. This figure is 17% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 7% higher than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were Japan, Mexico, China, Colombia, and Peru. Last week, 311,300MT of soybeans were booked for sale for the current marketing year. This figure is up noticeably from the previous week’s sales, is 38% higher than the prior four-week average, and is in the middle of the range of trade estimates. Last week’s soybean export shipments totaled 453,700MT. This figure is 22% lower than the previous week’s shipments and is 35% lower than the prior four-week average. Primary destinations were China, Germany, Japan, Mexico, and Indonesia. Yesterday, the funds sold 6000 contracts of corn, sold 1000 contracts of soybeans, and sold 3000 contracts of wheat. They are now estimated to be net long 33,700 contracts of corn, net long 112,630 contracts of soybeans, and net short 130,290 contracts of wheat. From a chart perspective, July corn charted a nine-month low and finished filling in the chart gap from July 26th overnight. The overnight low, 5.9350, stands as initial support, followed by the July 22nd low, 5.7425. Initial resistance is at the psychological 6.00 level, followed closely by the overnight high, 6.0250, and then 6.12, yesterday’s high. July soybeans find initial support at the one-month low charted overnight, 14.0525, followed by the psychological 14.00 mark, and then 13.8375, the double-low from September 8th and March 24th and the nearly eight-month low for the contract. Initial resistance is at 14.1725, the overnight high, followed by 14.50, and then the high for the week charted on Monday, 14.6225. Opening calls are lower.
Have a great Thursday.